NCAAFFinalVaught-Hemingway Stadium

#13 Missouri Tigers at #9 Ole Miss Rebels

Final · SEC Network

Final

#13Missouri Tigers

5-2 · L1

218 PF · 137 PA

Final

#9Ole Miss Rebels

5-1 · W2

225 PF · 143 PA

MIZ 41%MISS 59%

Model: MIZ 26.92–30.52 MISS

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2401244697

Winner called · off by 24

Most typical sim

MIZ 27 – MISS 31

Final

MIZ 3 – MISS 31

Winner: Ole Miss (62%)
Spread: MIZ +5.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 58.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)24

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MIZ vs MISS

The model

How this number was built

MIZ 26.92–30.52 MISS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MISS +15.6 vs MIZ +15.1 · pred margin +3.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.1 vs +9.7 · model MISS 28.8–28.0 MIZ
Home field
+3.0 pts to MISS
Record
MISS 5-1 · MIZ 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward MISS -4 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIZ	3	0	0	0	3
MISS	7	14	0	10	31

How the points were scored

FGQ1 8:163–0
Blake Craig 27 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 5:423–7
Caleb Odom 10 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
TDQ2 10:133–14
Horatio Fields 21 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
TDQ2 2:133–21
Caleb Cunningham 17 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
TDQ4 12:443–28
Trinidad Chambliss 5 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
FGQ4 3:453–31
Lucas Carneiro 38 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MIZ	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Austin Simmons #13	25/44	339	7.7	0	1	63.5
Team	25/44	339	7.7	0	1	--

Rushing

MIZ	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jamal Roberts #20	20	39	2.0	6
Xai'Shaun Edwards #24	3	8	2.7	10
Austin Simmons #13	3	-8	-2.7	4
Team	26	39	1.5	10

Receiving

MIZ	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Donovan Olugbode #1	9	127	14.1	23
Cayden Lee #19	5	62	12.4	43
Jude James #89	5	57	11.4	22
Naeshaun Montgomery #0	2	45	22.5	34
Caleb Goodie Sr. #2	1	22	22.0	22
Jamal Roberts #20	2	21	10.5	21
Jordon Harris #86	1	5	5.0	5
Team	25	339	13.6	43

Fumbles

MIZ	FUM	LOST	REC
Santana Banner #15	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

MIZ	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Nicholas Rodriguez #5	13	8	0	0	1
Santana Banner #15	8	6	0	1	0
Elijah Dotson #22	7	6	0	1	0
Dante McClellan #9	7	4	0	0	0
Chris Graves Jr. #1	4	4	0	0	0
Trajen Greco #4	4	3	0	0	0
Sione Laulea #2	4	1	0	1	0
Daeden Hopkins #10	2	2	0	0	0
Jalen Marshall #95	2	1	0	0	0
Jason Dowell #92	2	1	0	0	1
Cavan Tuley #55	2	0	0.5	0	0
Donta Simpson #8	2	0	0.5	0	1
Dominick Giudice #56	1	1	0	0	0
Robert Woodyard Jr. #0	1	1	0	0	0
Jahlil Florence #21	1	1	0	0	0
Kensley Louidor-Faustin #7	1	1	0	0	1
Marquis Gracial #3	1	0	0	0	0
Sterling Webb #90	1	0	0	0	0
Langden Kitchen #11	1	0	0	0	0
Team	64	40	1	3	4

Kick returns

MIZ	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
DaMarion Fowlkes #3	1	40	40.0	40
Robert Woodyard Jr. #0	1	19	19.0	19
Team	2	59	29.5	40

Kicking

MIZ	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Blake Craig #19	1/2	50.0	27	0/0	3
Team	1/2	50.0	27	0/0	3

Punting

MIZ	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Brunno Reus #40	7	297	42.4	2	2	56
Team	7	297	42.4	2	2	56

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIZ	MISS
1st Downs	17	27
3rd down efficiency	6-17	9-14
4th down efficiency	0-2	0-0
Total Yards	378	498
Passing	339	241
Comp/Att	25/44	20/36
Yards per pass	7.7	6.7
Rushing	39	257
Rushing Attempts	26	38
Yards per rush	1.5	6.8
Penalties	7-55	7-55
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	28:54	31:06

Computer pick · Spread

MIZ +5.5

53%

MIZ 26.92–30.52 MISS

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.