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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalSanford Stadium

Auburn Tigers at #1 Georgia Bulldogs

Final · ESPN

Final
Auburn Tigers
4-2 · W1
161 PF · 131 PA
27
Final
Final
#1Georgia Bulldogs
6-1 · L1
301 PF · 111 PA
24
AUB <1%UGA >99%

Model: AUB 15.36–35.08 UGA

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 522004274

Missed · off by 20
Most typical sim
AUB 17 – UGA 34
Final
AUB 27 – UGA 24
  • Winner: Georgia (85%)
  • Spread: AUB +19.5 covers (57%)
  • Total: Over 49.5 (56%)
  • Score error (both teams)20

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: AUB vs UGA

The model

How this number was built

AUB 15.36–35.08 UGA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    UGA +28.8 vs AUB +11.4 · pred margin +19.7
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +15.3 vs +4.7 · model UGA 34.8–15.1 AUB
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to UGA
  • Record
    UGA 6-1 · AUB 4-2
  • Market prior
    Blended 68% toward UGA -19.5 / total 50.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
AUB7107327
UGA14001024

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 12:030–7

    Dwight Phillips Jr. 15 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)

  • TDQ1 6:490–14

    Lawson Luckie 24 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)

  • TDQ1 3:077–14

    Keshaun Singleton 24 Yd pass from Christian Neptune (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • TDQ2 6:3214–14

    Chas Nimrod 9 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • FGQ2 1:2017–14

    Alex McPherson 49 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 11:2824–14

    Byrum Brown 5 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • FGQ4 14:1524–17

    Peyton Woodring 42 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 2:5824–24

    London Humphreys 4 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)

  • FGQ4 0:0027–24

    Alex McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

AUBC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Byrum Brown
#17
15/261505.81086.6
Christian Neptune
#8
1/12424.010--
Tristan Ti'a
#10
0/100.000--
Team16/281746.220--

Rushing

AUBCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Byrum Brown
#17
261154.4125
Jeremiah Cobb
#23
13614.7014
Omar Mabson II
#29
5142.808
Bryce Cain
#6
177.007
Team
1-5-5.000
Team461924.2125

Receiving

AUBRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Chas Nimrod
#5
66010.0121
Keshaun Singleton
#11
34515.0124
Jake Johnson
#19
22412.0018
Jeremiah Koger
#4
11818.0018
Arlis Boardingham
#82
11414.0014
DeShawn Spencer
#9
155.005
Omar Mabson II
#29
155.005
Jeremiah Cobb
#23
133.003
Team1617410.9224

Fumbles

AUBFUMLOSTREC
Team
100
Sylvester Smith-Reed
#0
001
Team101

Defense

AUBTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Elijah Melendez
#9
9711100
Bryce Deas
#16
8800000
Eric Winters
#5
5400000
Rayshawn Pleasant
#4
4400000
Andre Jordan Jr.
#22
4400000
AnQuon Fegans
#3
4300000
Kaleb Harris
#8
4200000
Sylvester Smith-Reed
#0
3300000
Jourdin Crawford
#95
3300000
De'Marcus Riddick
#6
2100000
Darrion Smith
#11
200.50.5000
Malik Autry
#96
1100000
Champ Anthony
#1
1100000
Nate Johnson
#90
1101000
Walter Mathis Jr.
#10
1100000
Cody Sigler
#94
1100000
Da'Shawn Womack
#15
1000000
Jared Smith
#41
100.50.5100
Chris Murray
#13
1000000
Dallas Walker IV
#35
0000100
Team564423300

Interceptions

AUBINTYDSTD
Elijah Melendez
#9
1130
AnQuon Fegans
#3
100
Team2130

Kick returns

AUBNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Rayshawn Pleasant
#4
23417.0190
Team23417.0190

Kicking

AUBFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Alex McPherson
#38
2/2100.0493/39
Team2/2100.0493/39

Punting

AUBNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Hudson Kaak
#14
727939.90347
Team727939.90347

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

AUBUGA
1st Downs2324
3rd down efficiency6-166-12
4th down efficiency2-20-0
Total Yards366440
Passing174327
Comp/Att16/2825/37
Yards per pass6.28.8
Rushing192113
Rushing Attempts4628
Yards per rush4.24.0
Penalties11-854-60
Turnovers03
Fumbles lost01
Interceptions thrown02
Possession29:3330:27
Computer pick · Total
Over 49.5
51%

AUB 15.36–35.08 UGA

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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