La LigaFinalMestalla Stadium
Athletic Club at Valencia
FT · ESPN Deportes
Final
Athletic Club
2-3-2
Form DDDWW · 7 PF · 6 PA
0
Final
Valencia
1-3-5
Form DDLWL · 6 PF · 15 PA
0
ATH 47%Draw 26%VAL 26%
Model: ATH 1.46–1.01 VAL
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3856609393
Most typical sim
ATH 1 – VAL 1
Final
ATH 0 – VAL 0
- Winner: Valencia (43%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ATH 1.46–1.01 VAL · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseVAL -0.3 off · ATH -0.0 off, shrunk 50%
- Home field+0.3 goals to VAL
- RecordVAL 1-3-5 · ATH 2-3-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward ATH +135 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VAL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game leaders
- Johaneko Louis Jeantotalshots 3
- Aymeric LaportePass 86
- Álex Berenguerdefensiveinterventions 8
- Unai SimónSV 3
- Javier Guerratotalshots 3
- PepeluPass 41
- Guido Rodríguezdefensiveinterventions 16
- Stole DimitrievskiSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATH | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 2 |
| Saves | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 63.2 | 36.8 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 483 | 267 |
| Passes | 568 | 334 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 4 |
| Crosses | 24 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 57 | 58 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 29 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 8 |
| Tackles | 14 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 16 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 35 |
| Clearances | 18 | 35 |
Computer pick · Total
Under 2.5
55%
ATH 1.46–1.01 VAL
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.