EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTReale Arena

Lyon at Real Sociedad

TV · Paramount+

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Computer

Over 3.5

47%

LYON 1.78–1.76 RSO · 0.0 goals over 3.5

Lyon

2-2 · L1 · computer pick

Form DWWLW

1.78

Projected

Real Sociedad

2-1-1 · W1

Form DWDWW

1.76

LYON 38%Draw 24%RSO 38%

Projected LYON 1.78–1.76 RSO

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RSO win

50%

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Total

3.55

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Lyon vs Real Sociedad prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Lyon 1.8, Real Sociedad 1.8. Model win probability: Real Sociedad 38%, Lyon 38%, draw 24%.

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