Borussia Mönchengladbach at VfB Stuttgart
TV · Fandango
BMG 1.21–2.96 VFB
Projected BMG 1.21–2.96 VFB · most likely 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.67 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
BMG 1.21–2.96 VFB · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VFB att +0.16 / def +0.02 · BMG att -0.20 / def -0.28 · model VFB 3.0–1.2 BMG
- Home field+0.3 goals to VFB
- RecordVFB 2-0-4 · BMG 0-0-6
Season leaders
- Hugo Bolingoals 2
- Hugo Bolingoalsleaders 2
- Josha Vagnomangoals 2
- Josha Vagnomangoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BMG | VFB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -12 | -2 |
| Total Goals | 8 | 8 |
| Assists | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 20 | 10 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Gladbach vs Stuttgart prediction · Oct 23, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projects Gladbach 1.2, Stuttgart 3.0. Model win probability: Stuttgart 71%, Gladbach 13%, draw 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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