Nice at Brest
NICE 1.24–1.61 BRE
Projected NICE 1.24–1.61 BRE · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.36 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
NICE 1.24–1.61 BRE · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BRE att -0.07 / def -0.12 · NICE att -0.18 / def -0.08 · model BRE 1.6–1.2 NICE
- Home field+0.3 goals to BRE
- RecordBRE 2-3-2 · NICE 2-2-3
Season leaders
- Elye Wahigoals 2
- Elye Wahigoalsleaders 2
- Kamory Doumbiagoals 4
- Kamory Doumbiagoalsleaders 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NICE | BRE | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | 3 |
| Total Goals | 6 | 13 |
| Assists | 4 | 10 |
| Goals Against | 9 | 10 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nice vs Brest prediction · Oct 23, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Nice 1.2, Brest 1.6. Model win probability: Brest 45%, Nice 28%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day