Serie AFri 1:45 PM CTStadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Monza at Torino

TV · Paramount+

Fri 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

54%

MON 1.09–1.74 TOR

Monza

2-1-4

Form DLWLD · 13 PF · 15 PA

1.09

Projected

Torino

3-1-3

Form DWDLW · 10 PF · 9 PA

1.74

MON 23%Draw 26%TOR 51%

Projected MON 1.09–1.74 TOR · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TOR win

64%

60% (no-vig)

Total

2.83

2.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, +0.33 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MON 1.09–1.74 TOR · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOR att -0.16 / def -0.15 · MON att -0.29 / def -0.35 · model TOR 1.7–1.1 MON
Home field
+0.3 goals to TOR
Record
TOR 3-1-3 · MON 2-1-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gustavo Varela
goals 6
Gustavo Varela
goalsleaders 6

Ché Adams
goals 3
Ché Adams
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MON	TOR
Goal Difference	-2	1
Total Goals	13	10
Assists	10	7
Goals Against	15	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Simeone anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+205
33%
S. Kulenovic anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+225
31%
P. Pellegri anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+235
30%
G. Oristanio anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+250
29%
D. Mota anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+300
25%
N. Vlasic anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+340
23%
Z. Aboukhlal anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+360
22%
R. Mandragora anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+390
20%
C. Ngonge anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+390
20%
O. Forson anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+390
20%
C. Casadei anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+450
18%
M. Mout anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+500
17%

Monza vs Torino prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Monza 1.1, Torino 1.7. Model win probability: Torino 51%, Monza 23%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day