NBAFri 6:00 PM CTSpectrum Center

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

TV · NBA League Pass

Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CHA +2.5

55%

At lock ATL 113.83–112.81 CHA · CHA by 1.5 pts vs CHA +2.5

Players

N. Alexander-Walker · ATL
Goalkeeper
J. Johnson · ATL
Forwards
O. Okongwu · ATL
Forwards
G. Allen · CHA
Goalkeeper
N. Reid · CHA
Forwards

Atlanta Hawks

1-0 · W1

132 PF · 125 PA

113.83

Projected

Charlotte Hornets

1-0 · W1 · computer pick

110 PF · 103 PA

112.81

ATL 53%CHA 47%

At lock: projected ATL 113.83–112.81 CHA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CHA -2.6

ATL -2.5

Total

227.0

226.5

Gap: +5.1 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ATL vs CHA

The model

How this number was built

ATL 113.83–112.81 CHA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CHA +0.2 vs ATL +0.8 · pred margin -1.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +4.8 vs +3.0 · model CHA 116.1–112.3 ATL
Home field
+2.8 pts to CHA
Record
CHA 1-0 · ATL 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward ATL -2.5 / total 226.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS 31.0
Jalen Johnson
REB 14.0
Onyeka Okongwu
AST 7.0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
rating 31.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Grayson Allen
PTS 21.0
Naz Reid
REB 11.0
Naz Reid
AST 7.0
Naz Reid
rating 20.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.0 APG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	CHA
STRK	W1	W1
OPP PPG	125.0	103.0
L10	1-0	1-0
PTS	132.0	110.0
FG%	49	44
3P%	39	31
REB	42.0	44.0
AST	28.0	26.0
BLK	3.0	4.0
STL	9.0	9.0
TTO	0.0	1.0
ToTO	17.0	21.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hawks vs Hornets prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Hawks 113.8, Hornets 112.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hornets 47%, Hawks 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day