NBAFri 6:00 PM CTGainbridge Fieldhouse

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers

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Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 235.5

51%

At lock DAL 115.15–120.66 IND · 0.3 pts over 235.5

Players

C. Flagg · DAL
Forwards
Z. Risacher · DAL
Forwards
N. Marshall · DAL
Forwards
P. Siakam · IND
Forwards
I. Zubac · IND
Forwards
T. Haliburton · IND
Goalkeeper

Dallas Mavericks

0-1 · L1

110 PF · 128 PA

115.15

Projected

Indiana Pacers

1-0 · W1

123 PF · 120 PA

120.66

DAL 32%IND 68%

At lock: projected DAL 115.15–120.66 IND

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IND -5.5

Total

237.3

236.5

Gap: +0.0 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DAL vs IND

The model

How this number was built

DAL 115.15–120.66 IND · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
IND +0.5 vs DAL -3.2 · pred margin +5.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -3.7 vs -4.1 · model IND 121.2–118.8 DAL
Home field
+2.8 pts to IND
Record
IND 1-0 · DAL 0-1
Market prior
Blended 71% toward IND -5.5 / total 236.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cooper Flagg
PTS 32.0
Zaccharie Risacher
REB 6.0
Naji Marshall
AST 6.0
Cooper Flagg
rating 32.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 3.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Pascal Siakam
PTS 30.0
Ivica Zubac
REB 15.0
Tyrese Haliburton
AST 12.0
Tyrese Haliburton
rating 23.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 12.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DAL	IND
STRK	L1	W1
OPP PPG	128.0	120.0
L10	0-1	1-0
PTS	110.0	123.0
FG%	52	52
3P%	30	30
REB	33.0	43.0
AST	20.0	29.0
BLK	4.0	4.0
STL	12.0	9.0
TTO	0.0	0.0
ToTO	21.0	13.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mavericks vs Pacers prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 235.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Mavericks 115.2, Pacers 120.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Pacers 68%, Mavericks 32%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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