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New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

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Computer pick · Total

Under 223.5

51%

At lock NY 110.33–112.88 BOS · 0.3 pts under 223.5

Players

J. Brunson · NY
Goalkeeper
A. Drummond · NY
Forwards
K. Towns · NY
Forwards
P. George · BOS
Forwards
J. Walsh · BOS
Goalkeeper
J. Tatum · BOS
Forwards

Data-Driven Pick · P. George Over 17.5 pts

-112

New York Knicks

0-1 · L1

100 PF · 106 PA

110.33

Projected

Boston Celtics

0-1 · L1

113 PF · 121 PA

112.88

NY 42%BOS 58%

At lock: projected NY 110.33–112.88 BOS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BOS -2.7

BOS -2.5

Total

222.5

223.5

Gap: +0.2 margin, -1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NY vs BOS

The model

How this number was built

NY 110.33–112.88 BOS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BOS +4.0 vs NY +4.3 · pred margin +2.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +5.1 vs +3.7 · model BOS 111.3–108.0 NY
Home field
+2.8 pts to BOS
Record
BOS 0-1 · NY 0-1
Market prior
Blended 71% toward BOS -2.5 / total 223.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jalen Brunson
PTS 21.0
Andre Drummond
REB 14.0
Andre Drummond
AST 4.0
Karl-Anthony Towns
rating 19.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.0 BPG

Paul George
PTS 38.0
Jordan Walsh
REB 6.0
Jayson Tatum
AST 11.0
Paul George
rating 38.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 5.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NY	BOS
STRK	L1	L1
OPP PPG	106.0	121.0
L10	0-1	0-1
PTS	100.0	113.0
FG%	37	45
3P%	33	40
REB	53.0	39.0
AST	21.0	28.0
BLK	8.0	5.0
STL	6.0	10.0
TTO	1.0	0.0
ToTO	15.0	14.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

P. George Over 17.5 pts

-11273%

Points · DraftKings

M. Robinson Over 5.5 pts
Points · BOS
-110
62%
L. Shamet Over 6.5 pts
Points · NY
-112
62%
N. Queta Over 7.5 pts
Points · BOS
-111
61%
J. Hart Over 10.5 pts
Points · NY
-117
59%
J. Brunson Under 25.5 pts
Points · NY
-115
58%
D. White Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · BOS
-116
57%
M. Bridges Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · NY
+126
57%
J. Brunson Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · NY
+126
57%
P. Pritchard Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · BOS
+105
57%
P. Pritchard Over 15.5 pts
Points · BOS
-120
56%
P. George Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · BOS
+104
56%

Knicks vs Celtics prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 223.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Knicks 110.3, Celtics 112.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Celtics 58%, Knicks 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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