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Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic

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Computer pick · Spread

ORL +1.5

51%

At lock MIN 119.29–118.10 ORL · ORL by 0.3 pts vs ORL +1.5

Players

A. Edwards · MIN
Goalkeeper
R. Gobert · MIN
Forwards
L. Ball · MIN
Goalkeeper
P. Banchero · ORL
Forwards
W. Carter Jr. · ORL
Forwards

Minnesota Timberwolves

1-0 · W1

131 PF · 106 PA

119.29

Projected

Orlando Magic

0-1 · L1 · computer pick

125 PF · 132 PA

118.10

MIN 54%ORL 46%

At lock: projected MIN 119.29–118.10 ORL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MIN -0.4

MIN -1.5

Total

238.6

239.5

Gap: +1.1 margin, -0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MIN vs ORL

The model

How this number was built

MIN 119.29–118.10 ORL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ORL +0.7 vs MIN +3.9 · pred margin -1.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +0.2 vs +2.3 · model ORL 117.8–118.1 MIN
Home field
+2.8 pts to ORL
Record
ORL 0-1 · MIN 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward MIN -1.5 / total 239.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Anthony Edwards
PTS 45.0
Rudy Gobert
REB 15.0
LaMelo Ball
AST 6.0
Anthony Edwards
rating 45.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Paolo Banchero
PTS 35.0
Wendell Carter Jr.
REB 7.0
Paolo Banchero
AST 10.0
Paolo Banchero
rating 35.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 10.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIN	ORL
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	106.0	132.0
L10	1-0	0-1
PTS	131.0	125.0
FG%	47	48
3P%	42	32
REB	52.0	39.0
AST	20.0	30.0
BLK	2.0	3.0
STL	11.0	10.0
TTO	2.0	0.0
ToTO	16.0	20.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Timberwolves vs Magic prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ORL +1.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Timberwolves 119.3, Magic 118.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Magic 46%, Timberwolves 54%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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