NCAAFFri 4:00 PM CTAlumni Stadium (DE)

North Carolina Central Eagles at Delaware State Hornets

TV · ESPN2

Fri 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NCCU +5.5

51%

NCCU 25.10–30.29 DSU · NCCU by 0.3 pts vs NCCU +5.5

Players

N. Layne · NCCU
QB
P. Lawrence · NCCU
Defenses
C. Peterson · NCCU
WR
U. Ale · DSU
QB
J. Sauray · DSU
QB
J. Terzado · DSU
WR

North Carolina Central Eagles

2-5 · computer pick

25.10

Projected

Delaware State Hornets

4-3

30.29

NCCU 37%DSU 63%

Projected NCCU 25.10–30.29 DSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DSU -4.5

DSU -5.5

Total

55.2

55.5

Gap: -1.0 margin, -0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NCCU vs DSU

The model

How this number was built

NCCU 25.10–30.29 DSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.7 vs -3.5 · model DSU 29.9–25.3 NCCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to DSU
Record
DSU 4-3 · NCCU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward DSU -5.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nelson Layne
Pass 77/123, 781 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Plez Lawrence
Rush 54 CAR, 317 YDS, 4 TD
Chance Peterson
Rec 33 REC, 348 YDS, 1 TD

Ui Ale
Pass 89/146, 1035 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Jayden Sauray
Rush 22 CAR, 313 YDS, 3 TD
Jaylin Terzado
Rec 21 REC, 310 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NCCU	DSU
Points Per Game	23.0	23.4
Total Yards	320.0	387.6
Yards Passing	159.4	200.6
Yards Rushing	160.6	187.0
Points Allowed Per Game	30.1	25.3
Yards Allowed	373.0	338.1
Pass Yards Allowed	218.9	197.1
Rush Yards Allowed	154.1	141.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

NC Central vs Delaware St prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NCCU +5.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects NC Central 25.1, Delaware St 30.3. Model win probability: Delaware St 63%, NC Central 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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