EPLFri 2:00 PM CTPortman Road

Nottingham Forest at Ipswich Town

Fri 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

NFO 1.60–1.21 IPS

Nottingham Forest

1-2-4

Form DLLWD · 5 PF · 9 PA

1.60

Projected

Ipswich Town

3-0-4

Form DWLLW · 11 PF · 15 PA

1.21

NFO 45%Draw 27%IPS 28%

Projected NFO 1.60–1.21 IPS · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

IPS win

41%

43% (no-vig)

Total

2.81

2.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, +0.31 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

NFO 1.60–1.21 IPS · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): IPS att -0.25 / def -0.35 · NFO att -0.17 / def +0.01 · model IPS 1.2–1.6 NFO
Home field
+0.3 goals to IPS
Record
IPS 3-0-4 · NFO 1-2-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dan Ndoye
goals 2
Dan Ndoye
goalsleaders 2

Leif Davis
goals 2
Leif Davis
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NFO	IPS
Goal Difference	-4	-4
Total Goals	5	11
Assists	3	8
Goals Against	9	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Nottm Forest vs Ipswich prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Nottm Forest 1.6, Ipswich 1.2. Model win probability: Ipswich 28%, Nottm Forest 45%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day