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Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

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Computer pick · Spread

MIL -1.5

51%

At lock CHI 118.71–120.48 MIL · MIL by 0.3 pts vs MIL -1.5

Players

M. Buzelis · CHI
Forwards
J. Smith · CHI
Forwards
J. Giddey · CHI
Goalkeeper
T. Herro · MIL
Goalkeeper
J. Jaquez Jr. · MIL
Forwards

Chicago Bulls

0-1 · L1

92 PF · 135 PA

118.71

Projected

Milwaukee Bucks

0-1 · L1 · computer pick

116 PF · 128 PA

120.48

CHI 44%MIL 56%

At lock: projected CHI 118.71–120.48 MIL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MIL -2.4

MIL -1.5

Total

237.7

238.5

Gap: +0.9 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CHI vs MIL

The model

How this number was built

CHI 118.71–120.48 MIL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIL -6.4 vs CHI -6.2 · pred margin +1.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -5.6 vs -5.6 · model MIL 118.5–116.6 CHI
Home field
+2.8 pts to MIL
Record
MIL 0-1 · CHI 0-1
Market prior
Blended 71% toward MIL -1.5 / total 238.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Matas Buzelis
PTS 17.0
Jalen Smith
REB 8.0
Josh Giddey
AST 6.0
Jalen Smith
rating 15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG

Tyler Herro
PTS 24.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
REB 7.0
Tyler Herro
AST 9.0
Tyler Herro
rating 24.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 9.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHI	MIL
STRK	L1	L1
OPP PPG	135.0	128.0
L10	0-1	0-1
PTS	92.0	116.0
FG%	32	45
3P%	11	37
REB	57.0	41.0
AST	16.0	28.0
BLK	5.0	2.0
STL	6.0	5.0
TTO	0.0	0.0
ToTO	27.0	16.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bulls vs Bucks prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MIL -1.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Bulls 118.7, Bucks 120.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bucks 56%, Bulls 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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