La LigaFri 2:00 PM CTMendizorrotza

Málaga at Alavés

TV · ESPN Deportes

Fri 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock MCF 1.04–1.71 ALA · 0.3 goals over 2.5

Players

A. Niño · MCF
Forwards
L. Boyé · ALA
Forwards

Málaga

0-4-5

Form DDLLD · 6 PF · 18 PA

1.04

Projected

Alavés

3-2-4

Form LLDLL · 13 PF · 10 PA

1.71

MCF 22%Draw 26%ALA 52%

At lock: projected MCF 1.04–1.71 ALA · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ALA win

65%

73% (no-vig)

Total

2.74

2.5

Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.24 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MCF 1.04–1.71 ALA · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ALA att -0.16 / def -0.03 · MCF att -0.21 / def -0.19 · model ALA 1.7–1.0 MCF
Home field
+0.3 goals to ALA
Record
ALA 3-2-4 · MCF 0-4-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Adrián Niño
goals 3
Adrián Niño
goalsleaders 3

Lucas Boyé
goals 5
Lucas Boyé
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MCF	ALA
Goal Difference	-12	3
Total Goals	6	13
Assists	4	9
Goals Against	18	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Larrubia anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+750
12%
J. Cruz anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+850
11%
A. Rebbach anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+900
10%
N. Tenaglia anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1000
9%
A. Blanco anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1100
8%
H. Abaida anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+1100
8%
A. Guevara anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1200
8%
V. Koski anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+2200
6%
M. Diarra anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+3000
6%
F. Calero anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+3500
6%
C. Puga anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+4000
6%
D. Murillo anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+3000
6%

Málaga vs Alavés prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Málaga 1.0, Alavés 1.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Alavés 52%, Málaga 22%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day