EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTVasil Levski National Stadium

Jagiellonia Bialystok at Levski Sofia

TV · Paramount+

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Computer

Under 2.5

84%

JAG 1.09–1.00 LEV · 0.4 goals under 2.5

Jagiellonia Bialystok

1-3 · L1 · computer pick

Form DWLWW

1.09

Projected

Levski Sofia

2-1-1 · W1

Form DDLLD

1.00

JAG 36%Draw 33%LEV 31%

Projected JAG 1.09–1.00 LEV

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LEV win

48%

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Total

2.09

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Jagiellonia vs Levski Sofia prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Jagiellonia 1.1, Levski Sofia 1.0. Model win probability: Levski Sofia 31%, Jagiellonia 36%, draw 33%.

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