EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTGoffertstadion
Omonia Nicosia at NEC Nijmegen
TV · Paramount+
Thu 11:45 AM CT
Computer
Over 2.5
32%
OMON 1.97–0.90 NEC · 0.4 goals over 2.5
Omonia Nicosia
2-2 · L1 · computer pick
Form DWWWL
1.97
Projected
NEC Nijmegen
2-1-1 · W1
Form DDDDD
0.90
OMON 61%Draw 23%NEC 16%
Projected OMON 1.97–0.90 NEC
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
NEC win
27%
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Total
2.87
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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
Omonia vs NEC prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects Omonia 2.0, NEC 0.9. Model win probability: NEC 16%, Omonia 61%, draw 23%.
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