EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTBayArena

Marseille at Bayer Leverkusen

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer

Over 3.5

50%

OLM 0.98–2.69 B04 · 0.2 goals over 3.5

Marseille

0-4 · L1

Form DWLWL

0.98

Projected

Bayer Leverkusen

4-0 · W1 · computer pick

Form DWWWW

2.69

OLM 11%Draw 17%B04 72%

Projected OLM 0.98–2.69 B04

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

B04 win

81%

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Total

3.67

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Marseille vs Leverkusen prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Marseille 1.0, Leverkusen 2.7. Model win probability: Leverkusen 72%, Marseille 11%, draw 17%.

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