EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTAFAS Stadion

Juventus at AZ Alkmaar

TV · Paramount+

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Computer

Over 2.5

33%

JUV 1.71–1.20 AZ · 0.4 goals over 2.5

Juventus

2-2-0 · computer pick

Form DLWDW

1.71

Projected

AZ Alkmaar

3-1 · W1

Form DDWLW

1.20

JUV 48%Draw 26%AZ 26%

Projected JUV 1.71–1.20 AZ

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AZ win

39%

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Total

2.92

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Juventus vs AZ Alkmaar prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Juventus 1.7, AZ Alkmaar 1.2. Model win probability: AZ Alkmaar 26%, Juventus 48%, draw 26%.

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