EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTGenerali Arena

AFC Bournemouth at Sparta Prague

TV · Paramount+

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Computer

Under 3.5

61%

BOU 2.15–1.00 SPP · 0.4 goals under 3.5

AFC Bournemouth

4-0 · W1 · computer pick

Form DWWLL

2.15

Projected

Sparta Prague

1-1-2 · L1

Form DDWLW

1.00

BOU 62%Draw 22%SPP 16%

Projected BOU 2.15–1.00 SPP

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SPP win

26%

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Total

3.15

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Bournemouth vs Sparta prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Bournemouth 2.1, Sparta 1.0. Model win probability: Sparta 16%, Bournemouth 62%, draw 22%.

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