EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTArasen Stadion

Viktoria Plzen at Lillestrom

TV · Paramount+

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Computer

Under 2.5

82%

PLZ 1.30–0.92 LSK · 0.3 goals under 2.5

Viktoria Plzen

0-4 · L1 · computer pick

Form DLLWL

1.30

Projected

Lillestrom

0-1-3 · L1

Form DWDDL

0.92

PLZ 44%Draw 31%LSK 25%

Projected PLZ 1.30–0.92 LSK

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LSK win

40%

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Total

2.22

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Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

Viktoria Plzen vs Lillestrom prediction · Nov 5, 2026

The model projects Viktoria Plzen 1.3, Lillestrom 0.9. Model win probability: Lillestrom 25%, Viktoria Plzen 44%, draw 31%.

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