Saudi ProFri 10:30 AM CTKing Abdullah Sports City

Al Diriyah at Al Ittihad

Fri 10:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

At lock DIR 1.00–1.60 ITT · 0.1 goals over 2.5

Players

D. Núñez · DIR
Forwards
Y. En-Nesyri · ITT
Forwards

Al Diriyah

4-3-3

Form DDLDW · 9 PF · 9 PA

1.00

Projected

Al Ittihad

6-2-1

Form DLLDW · 18 PF · 10 PA

1.60

DIR 26%Draw 24%ITT 50%

At lock: projected DIR 1.00–1.60 ITT · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ITT win

67%

67% (no-vig)

Total

2.82

3.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, -0.68 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

DIR 1.00–1.60 ITT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ITT att +0.17 / def +0.10 · DIR att -0.21 / def +0.00 · model ITT 1.8–1.0 DIR
Home field
+0.3 goals to ITT
Record
ITT 6-2-1 · DIR 4-3-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ITT -120 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Darwin Núñez
goals 3
Darwin Núñez
goalsleaders 3

Youssef En-Nesyri
goals 7
Youssef En-Nesyri
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DIR	ITT
Goal Difference	0	8
Total Goals	9	18
Assists	5	12
Goals Against	9	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Al Diriyah vs Al Ittihad prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Al Diriyah 1.0, Al Ittihad 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Ittihad 50%, Al Diriyah 26%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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