Saudi ProFri 1:00 PM CTPrince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium

Al Hilal at Al Qadsiah

Fri 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

56%

At lock HIL 1.91–1.50 QAD · 0.1 goals under 3.5

Players

G. Martinelli · HIL
Forwards
M. Retegui · QAD
Forwards

Al Hilal

8-0-1

Form DWWWW · 27 PF · 7 PA

1.91

Projected

Al Qadsiah

8-1-1

Form DWDWW · 24 PF · 9 PA

1.50

HIL 46%Draw 24%QAD 30%

At lock: projected HIL 1.91–1.50 QAD · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

QAD win

45%

43% (no-vig)

Total

3.25

3.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, -0.25 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

HIL 1.91–1.50 QAD · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): QAD att +0.40 / def +0.29 · HIL att +0.52 / def +0.41 · model QAD 1.5–1.7 HIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to QAD
Record
QAD 8-1-1 · HIL 8-0-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward HIL +120 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabriel Martinelli
goals 5
Gabriel Martinelli
goalsleaders 5

Mateo Retegui
goals 6
Mateo Retegui
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HIL	QAD
Goal Difference	20	15
Total Goals	27	24
Assists	17	18
Goals Against	7	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

O. Watkins anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+140
42%
M. Retegui anytime goal
Anytime goal · QAD
+175
36%
A. Al-Salem anytime goal
Anytime goal · QAD
+210
32%
G. Martinelli anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+225
31%
C. Summerville anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+260
28%
S. Al-Dawsari anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+275
27%
S. Mandash anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+310
24%
T. Reijnders anytime goal
Anytime goal · QAD
+320
24%
R. Neves anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+390
20%
T. Hernández anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+550
15%
M. Kanno anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+700
13%
N. Al-Dawsari anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIL
+1200
8%

Al Hilal vs Al Qadsiah prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Al Hilal 1.9, Al Qadsiah 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Qadsiah 30%, Al Hilal 46%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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