Saudi ProFri 8:30 AM CTAl Majma'a Sport City Stadium

Al Nassr at Al Faisaly

Fri 8:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock NSR 2.47–0.97 ALF · 0.1 goals under 3.5

Players

C. Ronaldo · NSR
Forwards
A. Mendy · ALF
Forwards

Al Nassr

7-1-1

Form DWWLD · 20 PF · 7 PA

2.47

Projected

Al Faisaly

1-4-4

Form DWLDD · 10 PF · 17 PA

0.97

NSR 69%Draw 19%ALF 13%

At lock: projected NSR 2.47–0.97 ALF · most likely 2–0

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ALF win

21%

12% (no-vig)

Total

3.34

3.5

Gap: +9 pts of win %, -0.16 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

NSR 2.47–0.97 ALF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ALF att -0.15 / def -0.15 · NSR att +0.41 / def +0.35 · model ALF 0.9–2.4 NSR
Home field
+0.3 goals to ALF
Record
ALF 1-4-4 · NSR 7-1-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NSR -390 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cristiano Ronaldo
goals 4
Cristiano Ronaldo
goalsleaders 4

Alexandre Mendy
goals 5
Alexandre Mendy
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NSR	ALF
Goal Difference	13	-7
Total Goals	20	10
Assists	13	9
Goals Against	7	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Félix anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+110
48%
A. Al-Hamdan anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+125
44%
S. Mané anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+170
37%
S. Costa anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+450
18%
T. Bongonda anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALF
+500
17%
C. Bassogog anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALF
+500
17%
A. Yahya anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+500
17%
A. Al-Amri anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+800
11%
A. Al-Khaibari anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+1400
7%
A. Seck anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALF
+1800
6%
N. Boushal anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+1800
6%

Al Nassr vs Al Faisaly prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Al Nassr 2.5, Al Faisaly 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Faisaly 13%, Al Nassr 69%, draw 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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