Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
TV · ESPN+
At lock TB 2.60–3.87 COL · 0.0 goals under 6.5
At lock: projected TB 2.60–3.87 COL
Model vs market
Gap: +2 pts of win %, -0.17 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TB vs COL
Lightning vs Avalanche prediction · Oct 23, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Lightning 2.6, Avalanche 3.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Avalanche 68%, Lightning 32%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day