Arizona State Sun Devils at #10 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Final · Fox
Model: ASU 16.38–34.32 TTU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3216292027
- Winner: Texas Tech (80%)
- Spread: ASU +15.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)27
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ASU vs TTU
The model
How this number was built
ASU 16.38–34.32 TTU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTTU +18.3 vs ASU -0.2 · pred margin +17.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +13.0 vs +2.5 · model TTU 36.1–16.5 ASU
- Home field+3.0 pts to TTU
- RecordTTU 6-0 · ASU 3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward TTU -16.5 / total 50.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| TTU | 21 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 53 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:480–7
Ben Roberts 24 Yd Interception Return (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ1 5:120–14
Will Hammond 9 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ1 3:170–21
J'Koby Williams 62 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ1 2:277–21
Raiden Vines-Bright 74 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Carson Smith Kick)
- FGQ2 12:437–24
Stone Harrington 31 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 8:2410–24
Carson Smith 30 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 6:2510–27
Stone Harrington 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 4:0810–33
J'Koby Williams 38 Yd Run (Stone Harrington PAT blocked)
- TDQ2 0:3110–40
Coy Eakin 11 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0010–43
Stone Harrington 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 9:3417–43
Reed Harris 2 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Carson Smith Kick)
- FGQ4 14:5717–46
Stone Harrington 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 9:2817–53
Terrance Carter Jr. 1 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ4 6:3225–53
Cardae Mack 12 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Mikey Keene Pass to Kyson Brown for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ASU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mikey Keene #12 | 25/34 | 256 | 7.5 | 2 | 0 | 81.5 |
 Cutter Boley #8 | 5/10 | 124 | 12.4 | 1 | 2 | 5.5 |
| Team | 30/44 | 380 | 8.6 | 3 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| ASU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyson Brown #1 | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | 15 |
 Marquis Gillis #6 | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | 10 |
 Cardae Mack #25 | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | 16 |
Cutter Boley #8 | 4 | -18 | -4.5 | 0 | 2 |
Mikey Keene #12 | 4 | -42 | -10.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 35 | 1.3 | 0 | 16 |
Receiving
| ASU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derek Eusebio #5 | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 0 | 30 |
 Raiden Vines-Bright #7 | 1 | 74 | 74.0 | 1 | 74 |
 Reed Harris #3 | 7 | 63 | 9.0 | 1 | 15 |
 Omarion Miller #4 | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | 28 |
 Jalen Moss #18 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 | 24 |
Cardae Mack #25 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 | 12 |
Kyson Brown #1 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 6 |
Marquis Gillis #6 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 AJ Ia #0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Anthony Miller #85 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 30 | 380 | 12.7 | 3 | 74 |
Fumbles
| ASU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Rodney Bimage Jr. #0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| ASU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jessiah McGrew #23 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rodney Bimage Jr. #0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeth Thues #31 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adrian Wilson #6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Owen Long #22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Stamps #1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Montana Warren #7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C.J. Fite #99 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zac Swanson #92 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Thompson #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Hyrum Vaeono #90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Julian Hugo #98 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cardae Mack #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tristan Bacon #45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Roman Pitre #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Martell Hughes #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Giggey #87 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daeshon Morgan #88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Prayer Young-Blackgoat #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ASU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaren Hamilton #16 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| ASU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Smith #32 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 30 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 30 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| ASU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick McLarty #35 | 3 | 130 | 43.3 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| Team | 3 | 130 | 43.3 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ASU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 4-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-5 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 415 | 502 |
| Passing | 380 | 242 |
| Comp/Att | 30/44 | 19/27 |
| Yards per pass | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| Rushing | 35 | 260 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 37 |
| Yards per rush | 1.3 | 7.0 |
| Penalties | 4-32 | 3-29 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 32:33 | 27:27 |
ASU 16.38–34.32 TTU
HitPlayer props
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