Barcelona at Real Betis
FT · ESPN Deportes
Model: BAR 2.44–1.15 BET
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1575691852
- Winner: Betis (45%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (67%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BAR 2.44–1.15 BET · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BET att +0.06 / def -0.02 · BAR att +0.60 / def +0.20 · model BET 1.4–2.3 BAR
- Home field+0.3 goals to BET
- RecordBET 6-1-3 · BAR 10-0
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BAR -245 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAR | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| BET | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Real Betis 0, Barcelona 1. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) left footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Jules Koundé.
- GOAL1H 27'
Goal! Real Betis 1, Barcelona 1. Valentín Gómez (Real Betis) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Pablo Fornals with a cross following a corner.
- GOAL1H 41'
Goal! Real Betis 1, Barcelona 2. Rodri (Barcelona) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Fermín López with a cross following a corner.
- GOAL2H 51'
Goal! Real Betis 1, Barcelona 3. Gabriel Jesus (Barcelona) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Lamine Yamal.
- GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Real Betis 2, Barcelona 3. Abde Ezzalzouli (Real Betis) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Giovani Lo Celso with a through ball following a fast break.
- GOAL2H 62'
Goal! Real Betis 2, Barcelona 4. Eric García (Barcelona) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Pau Cubarsí with a headed pass following a set piece situation.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Real Betis 2, Barcelona 5. Dani Olmo (Barcelona) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Pau Cubarsí.
Game leaders
- Lamine Yamaltotalshots 4
- RodriPass 126
- Xavi Espartdefensiveinterventions 7
- Joan GarcíaSV 3
- Nelson Deossatotalshots 2
- Valentín GómezPass 34
- Valentín Gómezdefensiveinterventions 11
- Álvaro VallesSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BAR | BET | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 2 |
| Saves | 3 | 5 |
| Possession | 69.3 | 30.7 |
| SHOTS | 18 | 6 |
| ON GOAL | 10 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 693 | 256 |
| Passes | 751 | 324 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 2 |
| Crosses | 6 | 6 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 26 | 57 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 19 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 9 |
| Tackles | 14 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 17 | 20 |
| Clearances | 17 | 20 |
BAR 2.44–1.15 BET
MissData-Driven Pick · Raphinha anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Barcelona vs Betis pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 68% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day