Atlético Madrid at Espanyol
FT · ESPN Deportes
Model: ATM 1.58–1.06 ESP
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1525358995
- Winner: Espanyol (44%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ATM 1.58–1.06 ESP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ESP att -0.21 / def -0.16 · ATM att +0.17 / def +0.13 · model ESP 1.2–1.7 ATM
- Home field+0.3 goals to ESP
- RecordESP 2-2-6 · ATM 8-1-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ATM -145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATM | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ESP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Espanyol 0, Atletico Madrid 1. Álex Baena (Atletico Madrid) right footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Julián Alvarez.
Game leaders
- Morten Hjulmandtotalshots 3
- Morten HjulmandPass 82
- Morten Hjulmanddefensiveinterventions 15
- Jan OblakSV 2
- Pol Lozanototalshots 3
- Leandro CabreraPass 32
- Leandro Cabreradefensiveinterventions 12
- Ángel FortuñoSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATM | ESP | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 5 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 12 | 4 |
| Saves | 2 | 5 |
| Possession | 70.6 | 29.4 |
| SHOTS | 19 | 10 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 600 | 196 |
| Passes | 672 | 271 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 3 |
| Crosses | 17 | 12 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 38 | 57 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 21 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 8 |
| Tackles | 11 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 16 | 19 |
| Clearances | 16 | 19 |
ATM 1.58–1.06 ESP
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Atlético vs Espanyol pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day