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Elche at Villarreal

FT · ESPN Deportes

Final

Elche

1-5-4

Form DDWLD · 11 PF · 17 PA

Final

Villarreal

2-4-4

Form DWLWW · 13 PF · 13 PA

ELC 14%Draw 19%VIL 68%

Model: ELC 1.05–2.51 VIL

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3739166060

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

ELC 1 – VIL 1

Final

ELC 0 – VIL 0

Winner: Villarreal (45%)
Total: Under 3.5 (77%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

ELC 1.05–2.51 VIL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VIL att +0.20 / def -0.06 · ELC att -0.13 / def -0.22 · model VIL 2.5–1.1 ELC
Home field
+0.3 goals to VIL
Record
VIL 2-4-4 · ELC 1-5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward VIL -230 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
ELC	0	0	0
VIL	0	0	0

Game leaders

Javier Morcillo
totalshots 1
Víctor Chust
Pass 41
Víctor Chust
defensiveinterventions 11
Matías Dituro
SV 6

Alberto Moleiro
totalshots 4
Logan Costa
Pass 73
Carlos Macià
defensiveinterventions 9
Péter Gulácsi
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ELC	VIL
Fouls	7	12
Yellow Cards	4	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	6
Corner Kicks	5	10
Saves	6	1
Possession	42.4	57.6
SHOTS	7	20
ON GOAL	1	7
On Target %	0.1	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	310	458
Passes	390	528
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	7
Crosses	10	19
Cross %	0.2	0.4
Long Balls	58	41
Accurate Long Balls	24	24
Long Balls %	0.4	0.6
Blocked Shots	1	8
Effective Tackles	10	7
Tackles	15	11
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	8	10
Effective Clearances	25	7
Clearances	25	7

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

76%

ELC 1.05–2.51 VIL

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Elche vs Villarreal pick result · Oct 17, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 76% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day