BundesligaFinalStadion An der Alten Försterei

Borussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin

FT · Fandango

Final

Borussia Dortmund

4-3-0

Form DLDWW · 11 PF · 4 PA

Final

1. FC Union Berlin

1-3-3

Form DWLLL · 5 PF · 17 PA

DOR 65%Draw 20%FCU 15%

Model: DOR 2.30–1.02 FCU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4106075292

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

DOR 1 – FCU 2

Final

DOR 0 – FCU 0

Winner: Union Berlin (42%)
Total: Under 3.5 (62%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

DOR 2.30–1.02 FCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FCU att -0.34 / def -0.13 · DOR att +0.09 / def +0.25 · model FCU 1.1–1.9 DOR
Home field
+0.3 goals to FCU
Record
FCU 1-3-3 · DOR 4-3-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DOR -210 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
DOR	0	0	0
FCU	0	0	0

Game leaders

Serhou Guirassy
totalshots 4
Kouakou Gadou
Pass 92
Waldemar Anton
defensiveinterventions 23

Felix Uduokhai
totalshots 2
András Schäfer
Pass 30
Tom Rothe
defensiveinterventions 12
Frederik Ronnow
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DOR	FCU
Fouls	12	13
Yellow Cards	3	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	0
Corner Kicks	5	5
Saves	0	2
Possession	62.6	37.4
SHOTS	12	11
ON GOAL	2	0
On Target %	0.2	0.0
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	500	246
Passes	570	340
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.7
Accurate Crosses	8	4
Crosses	29	18
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	43	59
Accurate Long Balls	21	26
Long Balls %	0.5	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	3
Effective Tackles	10	10
Tackles	14	18
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	7	9
Effective Clearances	40	29
Clearances	40	29

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

62%

DOR 2.30–1.02 FCU

Hit

Data-Driven Pick · S. Guirassy anytime goal

-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Dortmund vs Union Berlin pick result · Oct 17, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 62% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day