SC Paderborn 07 at Werder Bremen
FT · Fandango
Model: SCP 1.47–1.93 SVW
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4223518625
- Winner: Bremen (44%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SCP 1.47–1.93 SVW · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SVW att -0.19 / def -0.12 · SCP att -0.19 / def -0.11 · model SVW 1.8–1.4 SCP
- Home field+0.3 goals to SVW
- RecordSVW 2-4-1 · SCP 1-3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward SVW -150 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCP | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| SVW | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 18'
Goal! Werder Bremen 0, Paderborn 1. Stefano Marino (Paderborn) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Steffen Tigges following a fast break.
- GOAL1H 30'
Goal! Werder Bremen 0, Paderborn 2. Steffen Tigges (Paderborn) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal.
- GOAL2H 59'
Goal! Werder Bremen 1, Paderborn 2. Niclas Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Eren Dinkçi with a through ball.
- GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Werder Bremen 2, Paderborn 2. Niclas Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
Game leaders
- Steffen Tiggestotalshots 3
- Tjark SchellerPass 51
- Santiago Castanedadefensiveinterventions 15
- Nahuel Nicolas NollSV 9
- Niclas Füllkrugtotalshots 6
- Marco FriedlPass 85
- Marco Friedldefensiveinterventions 14
- Karl HeinSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SCP | SVW | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 5 |
| Saves | 9 | 2 |
| Possession | 39.1 | 60.9 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 18 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 11 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 320 | 537 |
| Passes | 399 | 626 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 3 |
| Crosses | 14 | 23 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 55 | 68 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 26 | 40 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 13 |
| Tackles | 25 | 19 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 40 | 28 |
| Clearances | 40 | 28 |
SCP 1.47–1.93 SVW
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Paderborn vs Bremen pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 64% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day