BundesligaFinalVeltins Arena

Mainz at Schalke 04

FT · Fandango

Final

Mainz

4-1-2 · W1

Form DLWLW · 15 PF · 10 PA

Final

Schalke 04

1-2-4 · L1

Form DLDWD · 4 PF · 8 PA

M05 46%Draw 28%S04 26%

Model: M05 1.56–1.12 S04

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4173185768

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

M05 1 – S04 2

Final

M05 1 – S04 0

Winner: Schalke (44%)
Total: Over 2.5 (59%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

M05 1.56–1.12 S04 · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): S04 att -0.36 / def -0.19 · M05 att -0.09 / def -0.01 · model S04 1.4–1.7 M05
Home field
+0.3 goals to S04
Record
S04 1-2-4 · M05 4-1-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward M05 +135 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
M05	1	0	1
S04	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 24'
Goal! Schalke 04 0, Mainz 1. Phillip Tietz (Mainz) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Anthony Caci with a cross.

Game leaders

Sheraldo Becker
totalshots 4
Stefan Posch
Pass 59
Stefan Posch
defensiveinterventions 19
Alexander Schwolow
SV 3

Kenan Karaman
totalshots 2
Hasan Kurucay
Pass 39
Hasan Kurucay
defensiveinterventions 19
Loris Karius
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	M05	S04
Fouls	20	12
Yellow Cards	2	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	7	3
Corner Kicks	1	4
Saves	3	5
Possession	53.7	46.3
SHOTS	10	9
ON GOAL	6	3
On Target %	0.6	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	340	259
Passes	464	391
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.7
Accurate Crosses	3	4
Crosses	10	17
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	81	69
Accurate Long Balls	34	15
Long Balls %	0.4	0.2
Blocked Shots	2	4
Effective Tackles	12	13
Tackles	16	18
Tackle %	0.8	0.7
Interceptions	7	11
Effective Clearances	49	34
Clearances	49	34

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

59%

M05 1.56–1.12 S04

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mainz vs Schalke pick result · Oct 17, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day