BundesligaFinalURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

FC Augsburg at SV Elversberg

FT · Fandango

Final

FC Augsburg

2-2-3 · L1

Form DDLDW · 19 PF · 16 PA

Final

SV Elversberg

4-1-2 · W1

Form DLDLW · 16 PF · 14 PA

FCA 28%Draw 23%ELV 48%

Model: FCA 1.50–2.01 ELV

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4189963387

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

FCA 1 – ELV 2

Final

FCA 3 – ELV 4

Winner: Elversberg (44%)
Total: Under 3.5 (62%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

FCA 1.50–2.01 ELV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ELV att -0.09 / def -0.12 · FCA att -0.12 / def -0.15 · model ELV 2.0–1.5 FCA
Home field
+0.3 goals to ELV
Record
ELV 4-1-2 · FCA 2-2-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward ELV +140 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
FCA	1	2	3
ELV	3	1	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 4'
Goal! Elversberg 1, Augsburg 0. Lukas Petkov (Elversberg) right footed shot from very close range to the high centre of the goal following a set piece situation.
GOAL1H 7'
Goal! Elversberg 2, Augsburg 0. Lasse Günther (Elversberg) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Maurice Krattenmacher following a fast break.
GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Elversberg 3, Augsburg 0. Maximilian Rohr (Elversberg) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Felix Keidel with a cross following a corner.
GOAL1H 45'+9'
Goal! Elversberg 3, Augsburg 1. Fabian Rieder (Augsburg) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 76'
Goal! Elversberg 3, Augsburg 2. Michael Gregoritsch (Augsburg) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Elversberg 4, Augsburg 2. Frederik Schmahl (Elversberg) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Lukas Petkov.
GOAL2H 90'
Goal! Elversberg 4, Augsburg 3. Mert Kömür (Augsburg) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Hennes Behrens with a cross.

Game leaders

Juma Bah
totalshots 4
Fabian Rieder
Pass 52
Calvin Brackelmann
defensiveinterventions 11
Finn Dahmen
SV 4

Lukas Petkov
totalshots 3
Maximilian Rohr
Pass 44
Lukas Finn Pinckert
defensiveinterventions 22
Nicolas Kristof
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FCA	ELV
Fouls	14	16
Yellow Cards	3	4
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	3
Corner Kicks	12	4
Saves	4	5
Possession	59.8	40.2
SHOTS	29	19
ON GOAL	8	8
On Target %	0.3	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	2	2
Accurate Passes	379	252
Passes	466	326
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	11	2
Crosses	38	11
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	42	51
Accurate Long Balls	19	24
Long Balls %	0.5	0.5
Blocked Shots	12	7
Effective Tackles	10	16
Tackles	15	22
Tackle %	0.7	0.7
Interceptions	12	16
Effective Clearances	15	48
Clearances	15	48

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

62%

FCA 1.50–2.01 ELV

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Augsburg vs Elversberg pick result · Oct 17, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 62% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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