NCAAFSat 3:00 PM CTHanson Field

UT Martin Skyhawks at Western Illinois Leathernecks

TV · ESPN+

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

WIU -1.5

54%

At lock UTM 24.00–27.02 WIU · WIU by 1.5 pts vs WIU -1.5

Players

T. Surber · UTM
QB
C. Franklin · UTM
Defenses
M. Sherrard · UTM
WR
K. McGill · WIU
QB
I. Jackson-Anderson · WIU
Defenses

UT Martin Skyhawks

3-4

24.00

Projected

Western Illinois Leathernecks

3-4 · computer pick

27.02

UTM 43%WIU 57%

At lock: projected UTM 24.00–27.02 WIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

WIU -6.1

WIU -1.5

Total

54.1

49.5

Gap: +4.6 margin, +4.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTM vs WIU

The model

How this number was built

UTM 24.00–27.02 WIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.5 vs -6.4 · model WIU 30.1–24.0 UTM
Home field
+3.0 pts to WIU
Record
WIU 3-4 · UTM 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward WIU -1.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tate Surber
Pass 97/153, 917 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT
Chris Franklin
Rush 93 CAR, 417 YDS, 4 TD
Makhia Sherrard
Rec 22 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD

Kennedy McGill
Pass 125/200, 1491 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Kennedy McGill
Rush 130 CAR, 680 YDS, 8 TD
Ihson Jackson-Anderson
Rec 22 REC, 292 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTM	WIU
Points Per Game	23.6	31.6
Total Yards	329.7	446.7
Yards Passing	162.3	250.9
Yards Rushing	167.4	195.9
Points Allowed Per Game	29.9	25.3
Yards Allowed	382.7	305.7
Pass Yards Allowed	236.6	183.6
Rush Yards Allowed	146.1	122.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UT Martin vs W Illinois prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WIU -1.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected UT Martin 24.0, W Illinois 27.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: W Illinois 57%, UT Martin 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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