Süper LigFri 12:00 PM CTMedas Konya Büyüksehir Stadyumu

Galatasaray at Konyaspor

Fri 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

50%

At lock GAL 1.81–0.89 KNY · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

V. Osimhen · GAL
Forward
C. Awaziem · KNY
Defender

Galatasaray

7-1-1

Form DWWLW · 19 PF · 12 PA

1.81

Projected

Konyaspor

2-2-5

Form DLDDW · 6 PF · 9 PA

0.89

GAL 58%Draw 25%KNY 17%

At lock: projected GAL 1.81–0.89 KNY · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

KNY win

29%

26% (no-vig)

Total

2.70

2.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.20 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

GAL 1.81–0.89 KNY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KNY att -0.28 / def +0.05 · GAL att +0.40 / def +0.33 · model KNY 0.9–1.8 GAL
Home field
+0.3 goals to KNY
Record
KNY 2-2-5 · GAL 7-1-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Victor Osimhen
goals 8
Victor Osimhen
goalsleaders 8

Chidozie Awaziem
goals 2
Chidozie Awaziem
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GAL	KNY
Goal Difference	7	-3
Total Goals	19	6
Assists	12	3
Goals Against	12	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

L. Sané anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+230
30%
M. Mohamed anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+295
25%
G. Gomes anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+390
20%
E. Bardhi anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+400
20%
E. Colley anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+475
17%
R. Sallai anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+650
13%
R. Nhaga anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+650
13%
L. Ugochukwu anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+750
12%
M. Lemina anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+950
10%
L. Torreira anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+950
10%
E. Bitshiabu anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+1200
8%
C. Awaziem anytime goal
Anytime goal · KNY
+1400
7%

Galatasaray vs Konyaspor prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Galatasaray 1.8, Konyaspor 0.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Konyaspor 17%, Galatasaray 58%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Süper Lig picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day