Internazionale at Venezia
TV · Paramount+
Now INT 2.59–0.96 VEN · pick locked earlier at Under 3.5; model has since moved
Data-Driven Pick · M. Thuram anytime goal
Projected INT 2.59–0.96 VEN
Model vs market
Gap: +0 pts of win %, +0.15 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Inter Milan vs Venezia prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Inter Milan 2.6, Venezia 1.0. Model win probability: Venezia 12%, Inter Milan 71%, draw 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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