NCAAFWed 6:00 PM CTJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

TV · CBSSN

Wed 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KENN +3

53%

At lock KENN 24.37–26.03 MTSU · MTSU by 1.7 pts vs KENN +3 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. Collins · KENN
QB
B. Munroe · KENN
WR
R. Gagliano · MTSU
QB
A. Martin · MTSU
RB
C. Lacy · MTSU
WR

Kennesaw State Owls

1-6 · L6 · computer pick

140 PF · 175 PA

24.37

Projected

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

4-3 · W2

163 PF · 193 PA

26.03

KENN 45%MTSU 55%

At lock: projected KENN 24.37–26.03 MTSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MTSU -0.4

MTSU -3.0

Total

50.4

50.5

Gap: -2.6 margin, -0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KENN vs MTSU

The model

How this number was built

KENN 24.37–26.03 MTSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MTSU -16.0 vs KENN -14.2 · pred margin +2.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.6 vs -0.8 · model MTSU 24.6–25.6 KENN
Home field
+3.0 pts to MTSU
Record
MTSU 4-3 · KENN 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MTSU -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Rickie Collins
Pass 144/210, 1426 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT
Rickie Collins
Rush 72 CAR, 295 YDS, 5 TD
Brayden Munroe
Rec 22 REC, 352 YDS

Roman Gagliano
Pass 126/215, 1404 YDS, 12 TD, 2 INT
Antonio Martin
Rush 94 CAR, 480 YDS, 1 TD
Cam'ron Lacy
Rec 41 REC, 437 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KENN	MTSU
Points Per Game	20.0	23.3
Total Yards	359.4	339.6
Yards Passing	227.4	200.6
Yards Rushing	132.0	139.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	27.6
Yards Allowed	380.0	405.9
Pass Yards Allowed	226.7	211.1
Rush Yards Allowed	153.3	194.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kennesaw St vs MTSU prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KENN +3, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Kennesaw St 24.4, MTSU 26.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: MTSU 55%, Kennesaw St 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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