Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
TV · NBA League Pass
At lock MIA 118.00–122.56 ATL · ATL by 4.6 pts vs ATL -3.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · T. Hardaway Jr. Over 7.5 pts
At lock: projected MIA 118.00–122.56 ATL
Model vs market
Gap: +3.4 margin, -1.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs ATL
Heat vs Hawks prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL -3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Heat 118.0, Hawks 122.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hawks 65%, Heat 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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