Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
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At lock GS 112.07–116.97 MIN · MIN by 4.9 pts vs MIN -3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: MIN -3.5 locked at 55% when posted
At lock: projected GS 112.07–116.97 MIN
Model vs market
Gap: +4.5 margin, +1.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GS vs MIN
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN -3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Warriors 112.1, Timberwolves 117.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Timberwolves 66%, Warriors 34%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day