Bologna at AC Milan
TV · Paramount+
Now BOL 1.02–1.51 MIL · pick locked earlier at Under 2.5; model has since moved
Projected BOL 1.02–1.51 MIL
Model vs market
Gap: -13 pts of win %, +0.11 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Bologna vs Milan prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Bologna 1.0, Milan 1.5. Model win probability: Milan 47%, Bologna 24%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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