Juventus at Genoa
TV · Paramount+
At lock JUV 1.53–0.96 GEN · 0.01 goals under 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected JUV 1.53–0.96 GEN
Model vs market
Gap: +8 pts of win %, -0.05 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Juventus vs Genoa prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Juventus 1.5, Genoa 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Genoa 23%, Juventus 49%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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