Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers
TV · ESPN
At lock PHI 120.07–116.16 IND · PHI by 3.9 pts vs IND +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · A. Simons Over 8.5 pts
At lock: projected PHI 120.07–116.16 IND
Model vs market
Gap: +1.9 margin, -4.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHI vs IND
76ers vs Pacers prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IND +4.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected 76ers 120.1, Pacers 116.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Pacers 37%, 76ers 63%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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