Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
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At lock ORL 110.42–115.08 TOR · 2.0 pts over 223.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · J. Shead Over 6.5 pts
At lock: projected ORL 110.42–115.08 TOR
Model vs market
Gap: +0.5 margin, +6.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs TOR
Magic vs Raptors prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 223.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Magic 110.4, Raptors 115.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Raptors 65%, Magic 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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