Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
TV · MNMT
At lock WSH 114.25–124.85 CLE · CLE by 10.6 pts vs CLE -10.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · D. Ayton Over 6.5 pts
At lock: projected WSH 114.25–124.85 CLE
Model vs market
Gap: +0.3 margin, -1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs CLE
Wizards vs Cavaliers prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CLE -10.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Wizards 114.3, Cavaliers 124.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cavaliers 81%, Wizards 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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