Saudi ProThu 1:00 PM CTAl-Awwal Park

Al Kholood at Al Nassr

Thu 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

51%

At lock KHO 0.78–3.07 NSR · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Domingues · KHO
Forward
Ângelo Gabriel · NSR
Forward

Al Kholood

3-3-4

Form DLLLW · 14 PF · 21 PA

0.78

Projected

Al Nassr

8-1-1

Form DWWWL · 23 PF · 8 PA

3.07

KHO 7%Draw 13%NSR 80%

At lock: projected KHO 0.78–3.07 NSR · most likely 0–3 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NSR win

88%

89% (no-vig)

Total

3.83

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.33 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KHO 0.78–3.07 NSR · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NSR att +0.42 / def +0.35 · KHO att -0.23 / def -0.27 · model NSR 3.1–0.8 KHO
Home field
+0.3 goals to NSR
Record
NSR 8-1-1 · KHO 3-3-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Julien Domingues
goals 4
Julien Domingues
goalsleaders 4

Ângelo Gabriel
goals 4
Ângelo Gabriel
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KHO	NSR
Goal Difference	-7	15
Total Goals	14	23
Assists	12	15
Goals Against	21	8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Félix anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+110
48%
A. Al-Hamdan anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+140
42%
S. Mané anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+170
37%
A. Yahya anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+500
17%
A. Al-Amri anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+750
12%
A. Al-Khaibari anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+1300
7%
S. Pinas anytime goal
Anytime goal · KHO
+2000
6%
N. Boushal anytime goal
Anytime goal · NSR
+1700
6%

Al Kholood vs Al Nassr prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Al Kholood 0.8, Al Nassr 3.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Nassr 80%, Al Kholood 7%, draw 13%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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