Saudi ProThu 1:00 PM CTAl-Shabab Club Stadium

Al Qadsiah at Al Riyadh

Thu 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

51%

At lock QAD 2.54–0.83 RIY · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Retegui · QAD
Forward
T. Okou · RIY
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · M. Retegui anytime goal

-110

Al Qadsiah

8-1-2

Form DLWWD · 26 PF · 12 PA

2.54

Projected

Al Riyadh

3-3-4

Form DLDWD · 11 PF · 19 PA

0.83

QAD 73%Draw 17%RIY 10%

At lock: projected QAD 2.54–0.83 RIY · most likely 2–0

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RIY win

18%

14% (no-vig)

Total

3.36

3.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, -0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

QAD 2.54–0.83 RIY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RIY att -0.35 / def -0.19 · QAD att +0.41 / def +0.26 · model RIY 0.8–2.5 QAD
Home field
+0.3 goals to RIY
Record
RIY 3-3-4 · QAD 8-1-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mateo Retegui
goals 7
Mateo Retegui
goalsleaders 7

Teddy Okou
goals 4
Teddy Okou
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	QAD	RIY
Goal Difference	14	-8
Total Goals	26	11
Assists	20	7
Goals Against	12	19

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

M. Retegui anytime goal

-11052%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

A. Al-Salem anytime goal
Anytime goal · QAD
+115
47%
T. Reijnders anytime goal
Anytime goal · QAD
+190
34%
Trézéguet anytime goal
Anytime goal · RIY
+320
24%

Al Qadsiah vs Al Riyadh prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Al Qadsiah 2.5, Al Riyadh 0.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Riyadh 10%, Al Qadsiah 73%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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