Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken
TV · ESPN+
At lock TOR 3.85–2.67 SEA · TOR by 1.2 goals vs SEA +1.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected TOR 3.85–2.67 SEA
Model vs market
Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.06 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs SEA
Maple Leafs vs Kraken prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SEA +1.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Maple Leafs 3.9, Kraken 2.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Kraken 33%, Maple Leafs 67%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day