NFLMon 7:15 PM CTLumen Field

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

TV · ESPN

Mon 7:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CHI +3

51%

At lock CHI 21.32–23.94 SEA · SEA by 2.6 pts vs CHI +3 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Williams · CHI
QB
D. Swift · CHI
RB
L. Burden III · CHI
WR
S. Darnold · SEA
QB
E. Wilson · SEA
RB
J. Smith-Njigba · SEA
WR

Data-Driven Pick · J. Smith-Njigba Under 100.5 rec yds

-110

Chicago Bears

5-2 · W2 · computer pick

180 PF · 143 PA

21.32

Projected

Seattle Seahawks

4-3 · W1

168 PF · 125 PA

23.94

CHI 42%SEA 58%

At lock: projected CHI 21.32–23.94 SEA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SEA -2.5

SEA -3.0

Total

45.3

46.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, -1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CHI vs SEA

The model

How this number was built

CHI 21.32–23.94 SEA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SEA +4.3 vs CHI +3.9 · pred margin +2.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) SEA off -0.02, def stop +0.12 · CHI off +0.03, def stop +0.00 · rest -3d · QB change: SEA · model SEA 22.3–20.5 CHI
Home field
+2.4 pts to SEA
Record
SEA 4-3 · CHI 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward SEA -3 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Caleb Williams
Pass 88/124, 1020 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
D'Andre Swift
Rush 116 CAR, 476 YDS, 7 TD
Luther Burden III
Rec 35 REC, 491 YDS, 2 TD

Sam Darnold
Pass 110/177, 1290 YDS, 8 TD, 8 INT
Emanuel Wilson
Rush 111 CAR, 403 YDS, 3 TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rec 58 REC, 867 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHI	SEA
Points Per Game	25.7	24.0
Total Yards	409.1	360.3
Yards Passing	254.9	246.6
Yards Rushing	154.3	113.7
Points Allowed Per Game	20.4	17.9
Yards Allowed	328.9	247.4
Pass Yards Allowed	241.3	158.0
Rush Yards Allowed	87.6	89.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

J. Smith-Njigba Under 99.5 rec yds

-11072%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

J. Smith-Njigba Under 7.5 rec
Receptions · SEA
-110
64%
S. Darnold anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
61%
J. Smith-Njigba anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
61%
K. Raymond anytime TD
Anytime TD · CHI
-110
59%
E. Saubert anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
59%
C. Kupp anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
59%
R. Odunze anytime TD
Anytime TD · CHI
-110
59%
N. Kallerup anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
59%
A. Barner anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
59%
T. Horton anytime TD
Anytime TD · SEA
-110
59%
S. Roush anytime TD
Anytime TD · CHI
-110
59%

Bears vs Seahawks prediction · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CHI +3, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Bears 21.3, Seahawks 23.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Seahawks 58%, Bears 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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