NFLSun 7:20 PM CTNorthwest Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

TV · NBC

Sun 7:20 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PHI +5.5

53%

At lock PHI 18.83–23.14 WSH · WSH by 4.3 pts vs PHI +5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. McKee · PHI
QB
S. Barkley · PHI
RB
D. Smith · PHI
WR
J. Daniels · WSH
QB
S. Diggs · WSH
WR

Philadelphia Eagles

2-5 · L5 · computer pick

127 PF · 175 PA

18.83

Projected

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · L1

132 PF · 172 PA

23.14

PHI 36%WSH 64%

At lock: projected PHI 18.83–23.14 WSH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

WSH -3.8

WSH -5.5

Total

41.9

40.5

Gap: -1.7 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PHI vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

PHI 18.83–23.14 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WSH -3.2 vs PHI -5.5 · pred margin +4.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) WSH off -0.01, def stop -0.06 · PHI off -0.08, def stop -0.01 · rest +7d · model WSH 23.4–21.6 PHI
Home field
+2.4 pts to WSH
Record
WSH 1-4-1 · PHI 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward WSH -5.5 / total 40.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tanner McKee
Pass 49/80, 426 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
Saquon Barkley
Rush 43 CAR, 244 YDS, 1 TD
DeVonta Smith
Rec 26 REC, 310 YDS, 2 TD

Jayden Daniels
Pass 75/116, 759 YDS, 5 TD
Jayden Daniels
Rush 25 CAR, 213 YDS, 2 TD
Stefon Diggs
Rec 24 REC, 214 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PHI	WSH
Points Per Game	18.1	22.0
Total Yards	281.9	339.3
Yards Passing	194.1	214.2
Yards Rushing	87.7	125.2
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	28.7
Yards Allowed	379.3	368.5
Pass Yards Allowed	247.9	268.0
Rush Yards Allowed	131.4	100.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Eagles vs Commanders prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PHI +5.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Eagles 18.8, Commanders 23.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Commanders 64%, Eagles 36%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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