NFLSun 3:25 PM CTHard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

TV · CBS

Sun 3:25 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 44.5

50%

At lock NE 26.14–19.30 MIA · 0.9 pts over 44.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Maye · NE
QB
R. Stevenson · NE
RB
H. Henry · NE
TE
M. Willis · MIA
QB
O. Gordon II · MIA
RB
M. Washington · MIA
WR

Data-Driven Pick · M. Willis Over 181.5 pass yds

-110

New England Patriots

4-3 · L1

160 PF · 143 PA

26.14

Projected

Miami Dolphins

1-5 · W1

98 PF · 157 PA

19.30

NE 70%MIA 30%

At lock: projected NE 26.14–19.30 MIA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NE -7.0

Total

44.7

43.5

Gap: +0.0 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NE vs MIA

The model

How this number was built

NE 26.14–19.30 MIA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIA -7.3 vs NE +2.3 · pred margin -7.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) MIA off -0.02, def stop -0.10 · NE off +0.09, def stop -0.02 · rest -3d · model MIA 20.4–26.9 NE
Home field
+2.4 pts to MIA
Record
MIA 1-5 · NE 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NE -7 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Drake Maye
Pass 141/214, 1784 YDS, 13 TD, 8 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rush 77 CAR, 285 YDS, 2 TD
Hunter Henry
Rec 26 REC, 296 YDS, 2 TD

Malik Willis
Pass 87/151, 1057 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Ollie Gordon II
Rush 72 CAR, 339 YDS, 4 TD
Malik Washington
Rec 26 REC, 289 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NE	MIA
Points Per Game	22.9	16.3
Total Yards	383.4	307.7
Yards Passing	261.4	176.2
Yards Rushing	122.0	131.5
Points Allowed Per Game	20.4	26.2
Yards Allowed	334.3	346.3
Pass Yards Allowed	239.0	236.2
Rush Yards Allowed	95.3	110.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

M. Willis Over 181.5 pass yds

-11068%

Passing yards · DraftKings

C. Bell Over 1.5 rec
Receptions · MIA
-110
62%
H. Henry anytime TD
Anytime TD · NE
-110
62%
D. Maye anytime TD
Anytime TD · NE
-110
62%
R. Stevenson anytime TD
Anytime TD · NE
-110
62%
O. Gordon II Over 1.5 rec
Receptions · MIA
-110
62%
M. Willis Over 218.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · MIA
-110
62%
R. Stevenson Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · NE
-110
59%
O. Gordon II Over 9.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · MIA
-110
58%
J. Wright Over 16.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · MIA
-110
58%
D. Douglas Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · NE
-110
58%
R. Stevenson Over 17.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · NE
-110
58%

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 44.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Patriots 26.1, Dolphins 19.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dolphins 30%, Patriots 70%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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